Epidemic Curve of COVID-19 New Cases

Epidemic Curve with Moving Averages on New Cases

Author

Affiliation

Dr Saiful Safuan Md Sani

Advanced Acute Internal Medicine Society Malaysia & Department of Medicine Hospital Kuala Lumpur

Published

April 11, 2020

DOI

“To bring the pandemic to an end countries have to bend the curve – they have to achieve a plateau then decline in the number of daily cases.” - Our World in Data

The chart below illustrates that a 10-day period is the best time frame to use to decide on the effectiveness of the MCO strategy in Malaysia.

Mar 01Mar 15Mar 29Apr 12Apr 26May 10May 24Jun 07050100150200250
New cases confirmed each day10-day Moving averages5-day Moving averagesNew cases confirmed each dayConfirmed new cases

The 10-day moving averages curve is more ‘stable’ or less erratic compared to the 5-day moving averages curve.

Footnotes

    Corrections

    If you see mistakes or want to suggest changes, please create an issue on the source repository.

    Reuse

    Text and figures are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 4.0. Source code is available at https://github.com/aaimsco/AcuteInternalMedicine, unless otherwise noted. The figures that have been reused from other sources don't fall under this license and can be recognized by a note in their caption: "Figure from ...".